"Buy any ONE Package ~ Sponsor ONE Child for ONE Year Education"

Dear Friends,

HBJ Capital is coming out with 5 days special offer between Jan 25th to Jan 29th 2012. We neither had any offer during Christmas nor on the New Year, but what inspired us to come out with once in a lifetime offer ishttp://www.shantifoundation.org/. Not many of you are aware of the fact that HBJ Capital’s CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) unit called “The Shanti Foundation” works for children welfare and development programs thru various NGOs.

We have something more than just the offer, a noble cause which will help unprivileged children of our country to get sponsorship for their education. "We owe it to society to give the wealth back": Let’s join our hands to serve the future of our nation, after all it is our own INDIA, our own BHARAT, apna hee tho Desh hai!!!

"Buy any ONE Package ~ Sponsor ONE Child for ONE Year Education"
- With every package purchased by you, HBJ Capital will sponsor (thru NGO http://www.smilefoundationindia.org) the education of 1 child for 1 year.

The republic day offer will open on 25th January 2012 and will close on 29 Jan 2012. In this special offer you can get special discount on all our products and services, details of which will be announced on Jan 24th 2012.

Regards
Kumar Harendra, CEO, HBJ Capital

10-in-3 (10x in 3 years) stock reco for the month of Jan'12 will be released soon....

Subscribe to HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.

[Click on the image to know the complete package details]

Dear Paid Subscribers,

Just like, "10in3" research report in Oct'11 this time also we have picked one of the best small cap company, a giant in making, with tremendous potential. With our research report we build conviction on you, remember tips can't help you in investing !!!

As a part of “10in3” Small Cap Research Report for Jan’12...

1. For Jan'12 Issue of 10in3 report (under Multibagger & Penny Stock Package), we have selected an undisputed leader company (small cap) in its niche area of operation.
2. As of now company is available very cheap. Almost at throwaway prices.
3. With very small equity base, consistent performance from last 4-5 years, this company is best and one of the MUST for your portfolio.
4. Yet to come in the eyes of big players, FII or MF. No traders are tracking this stock, which is where HBJ Capital looks at. Just remember, if you want to become billionaire or even millionaire in dollar terms, you have to look where no one is looking at.
5. Scale of opportunity is too big (even more than 1000 times of company’s sales) for this small leader or say a giant in making!!!
6. If company is able to achieve its goal of FY14 (during last 3-4 years it has kept its promises, we have tracked it), then on conservative basis stock is going to multiply 5-6 times in just 2 years itself.

For details on 10in3 research report and MPS Package details: HERE

Contact: Info@hbjcapital.com | Mob: 09886736791 (24X7) | Ph: 080-65681133/34

Is it the time to dethrone the King?

There is a famous french proverb which says “The silence of the people is warning for the king”. The proverb is perfectly suitable for this situation where once the king of all stocks has been underperforming in last two years. The shareholders of this biggest grass root refinery company in the world are silently witnessing the results, quarter on quarter and year on year and at every negative step they are bashing the stock price of the company. The confusion and question are increasing on shareholder’s mind whether to completely exit from the stock at this level or its just a matter of small hiccup which would passed in a quarter or two.

The Company recently declared Q3 FY 12 result which was as medicore as its stock performance in last two years. Also before the results the Company announced a buy back program where company will buy back its shares from open market. Now the question arises, was it a planned decision to announce a buy back just to overcome the heat of bad result? Or the company is not having any way to utilise its cash. We tried to analyse the situation to help the shareholder to decide whether to exit this falling kingdom or invest in it to build much bigger empire.

The top line of the company has grown by 40% (Y-o-Y) in Q3 of the current fiscal year compared to previous year whereas the bottom line has hit by 13.6% in the same period. The EPS of the company has decrease by over 15% compared to Q3 FY11 but the major blow company faced was in Gross Refinery Margin (GRM) which stood at US$6.8 for Q3 FY12 v/s US$9 in Q3 FY11. The major reason behind this debacle was increase in raw material cost and lowering in the demand citing global slowdown. Another reason which contributed a lot was difference between Arab high and low crude was nearly eroded and the premium was pretty less.

If looked closely the raw material cost was increased by 50.6% in 9M FY12 compared to previous year thus, putting excessive pressure on EBITDA margin. One thing to closely monitor was the other income component which was increased by 86% (y-o-y)in Q3 FY12. The contribution of the other income (largely interest on idle cash) to PBT grew to 30 per cent from only 15 per cent in September 2011 quarter and 10 per cent in December 2010 quarter. This means Reliance Industries is making more money from money than from the capital deployed in businesses. This itself is a warning sign for the shareholder where the profit from the company’s core business is gradually declining.

Two of its important business Refining & petrochemical underperformed heavily due to sluggish demand in the international market. The GRM (Gross Refinery Margin) which stood at $6.8 for the quarter was far below than Singapore benchmark which stood at US$ 7.3 to US$ 7.4.

The Company has also announced a share buyback programme just before declaring Q3 results. The Company will buy back shares up to 12 Cr equity shares with a maximum price of Rs 870. it has also capped the buyback investment up to Rs 10,440 Cr. The announcement timing is really questionable as let-down results were followed after the announcement was made.

Once the king of stock market and prince of index is going through a turbulent situation quite lately. In last one year, the market has shown a fall of 12% whereas the RIL has a shown a downturn of 20%. The Shareholders are now getting bit dizzy about the underperformance of the scrip in the bourse in last two years.

A Contrarian view cannot be ruled out where the stock can be invested after witnessing some fall from here due to bad result and capped upper side for long term investment. The Company which is debt free on net terms can be included in a portfolio once the bad results are digested and some green weeds can be viewed on the results. Nevertheless, it’s high time the biggest private sector company of the country start performing or else it would be matter of time when King is dethrone from its crown.

Niraj Rampuria, A Market Learner [niraj@hbjcapital.com]

Subscribe to HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.

The credit situation has improved, if only for the short run, thanks to the LTRO funding.

Subscribe to HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.

European Central Bank (ECB) actions taken in December to counter a potentially devastating liquidity problem in the euro zone are gaining some traction, at least for now. The key step: making $650 billion in new money available to euro zone banks over three years under the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO).

This week, for example, Spain sold one-year debt at a little more than half the rates markets demanded just last month, despite a recent downgrade of its sovereign credit rating. Also, the bailed-out banks have used some of their new-found capital – though not nearly as much as was hoped for — to buy up some European sovereign debt, further easing rate pressures.

The move came just in time. European banks last month were locked in a devastating credit crunch that could have brought the continent’s economy down hard. Banks were refusing to lend to each other, mostly over fears that sovereign debt held on the banks’ books could go bad. That could have caused some bankruptcies, and bank failures could have spread quickly.

The credit situation has improved, if only for the short run, thanks to the LTRO funding. But the big picture remains risky — and in some ways confusing — because of the unusual, circular way in which funds are changing hands between banks and governments. As The Economist noted recently, banks from Spain, Greece and Italy have the deepest capital shortfalls.“Several may have to tap government bail-out funds to raise the capital, creating the circular prospect of governments bailing out their banks that are in turn supposed to bail out the government.”

So if money is simply on a merry-go-round, why have markets responded positively, if only in the short term?“Essentially banks are trying to monetize the debt.” Since the Maastricht Treaty forbids the ECB from simply printing money and buying up debt, “this is an attempt to do the same thing by allowing the banks to borrow and then buy the debt.” In the ongoing European debt crunch saga, all sides seem willing to use more debt to continue gambling on an eventual economic recovery that can reverse the tide. But with Europe now widely believed to be heading into – or already in – recession, many economies are shrinking and so are government revenues, and thus the ability to service all of this debt.

“First of all, the banks are taking on risk. If there is a default on the government bonds they buy, they will likely go bankrupt. This is quite possible and this why so far they have been reluctant to do this in large quantities.” The ECB also is taking a risk – “if the banks go bankrupt, they will be technically insolvent. This will cause a significant political problem.”

The LTRO … may save the day but it also concentrates risk further for the Bundesbank and other central banks in the euro zone system, as well as private banks. The ultimate disaster could be even worse if it all goes wrong. So far, while the LTRO has had the effect of lowering sovereign borrowing costs for some pressed European sovereigns, it has not yet accomplished another key goal – getting banks to lend to each other in a way that increases business and consumer credit. “We see that the key refinancing markets for banks are clogged; the interbank market is basically not functioning”.

- Source (Web)

The US and Indian equity indexes are at reversal points, putting bulls on notice.

The dollar rally fizzled out in the week to 20 January, giving global equities a boost but pushing them to levels where they previously sold off. The US and Indian equity indexes are at reversal points, putting bulls on notice.

Last week we had mentioned that both the US dollar and 10-year US treasuries were poised for a potential breakout and rally, which would have led to a selloff in equities. Both the asset classes are considered safe havens and rallies in them often lead to selloffs in equity.

However, both the dollar and treasuries broke their resistance levels and then sold off, leading to a rally in equities. But the fall in the dollar has pushed equity prices to key resistance levels. This is true of the Indian equity indexes – Sensex and Nifty – as well as the US equity indexes – the Dow and Nasdaq 100.

Also, the fall in the dollar powered a copper rally to a previous selloff level. A selloff in copper is often followed by a selloff in equities. Before we look at the indexes, it is important to mention that a breakout from these levels can take prices higher and result in a further selloff in dollar and treasuries.

Indian markets: A look at the Nifty chart shows that the index has reached the level of a previous selloff in early December 2011. (Click here for Nifty chart). If the Nifty closes above 5, 100, it can rally higher. But till such time that happens, the bias is bearish. Also notice the candlestick the Nifty created last Friday. It is called a hanging man candlestick pattern, which is bearish.

The Sensex, too, has the same structure as the Nifty. It also created a hanging man on Friday. If the index closes about 17,000 it can rally higher. (Click here for Sensex chart). The indexes are at an excellent level to take short positions in anticipation of a selloff. However, if the Nifty rallies about 5, 100 and the Sensex about 17,000, one should get out of the short positions.

Entering at the current level with a stop-loss around the levels mentioned can lead to a small loss, but the profit potential is high. Given the risk to reward ratio, this is a good time to short.

US markets: A fall in US equities generally leads to a drop in the global markets. In the US, two of the four major indexes are at reversal points and they are the Dow and the Nasdaq 100. However, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 (small-cap index) have not hit reversal points.

The Dow neared the point of reversal hit in July 2011 (Click here for the Dow chart) and the Nasdaq 100 has already hit the level. (Click here for Nasdaq 100 chart). For the Dow, the reversal point is around 12,800 and a close above that can take the index higher. For the Nasdaq 100, that point is 2,450. The reversal levels are marked on the chart with a white horizontal line and white arrows.

If both these markets rally higher a lot of people will get bullish. But be careful as the S&P 500 is nearing its reversal level near 1,350. The index closed at 1, 315 on Friday. A fall in the S&P 500 can drag the other indexes down.

Copper: Copper hit its reversal level on Thursday and sold off on Friday. (Click here for copper chart) The reversal levels are marked on the chart with a white horizontal line and white arrows. In case copper falls, the equity markets tend to follow. So keep a close eye on copper to get a sense of direction for equities.

Dollar Index: The dollar index sold off but is nearing a level from where it could bounce. A bounce will be additional confirmation for an equity selloff. In case the index falls below 79.50 it can go down further. The index closed at 80.22 on Friday.

Greece debt deal — a wild card: There is talk of a weekend deal between Greece and private sovereign bond holders. Under the deal, bond holders may take a 50 percent haircut (writedown) and extend the maturities. Some people calculate that the 50 percent haircut and maturity extension would erase the net present value of Greek bonds by as much as 75 percent. This is disastrous for the institutions holding the bonds, but the fact that there has been a deal could lead to a market rally.

Source (Web)

Stock Markets and Las Vegas are poles apart!

Subscribe to HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.

There are many folks out there who assert that stock markets are like Las Vegas - it’s hard to win. The main thing to accept about the stock market is that it entails risk to participate in it. However, the odds are in your favor if you do decide to invest in it, provided you understand you your risks and control it accordingly. In that sense it is not the same as Las Vegas.

The most frightening thing is that the market is full of ignorant investors who are confident of themselves. The wise investors are full of doubt, but the less informed are very sure of themselves.

So, irrespective of the fact whether you are wise or ill informed, HBJ Capital is the place where you will find fantastic stock ideas that present you with irresistible opportunities of minting money even as the market mesmerizes you. Just log ontohttp://soft.hbjcapital.net/ and get your hands on one such stock idea that can fetch you good dividends whilst ensuring gradual and solid capital appreciation along the way.

Greek Debt Deal Falls Short of What’s Needed to Save Euro : Possible outcomes of Greek debt talks!

Subscribe to HBJ Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.

This week’s main event in Europe has been a standoff between Greece and its private creditors over the terms of a “voluntary” debt-relief deal. Agreement is crucial to avert a Greek default on a 14.4 billion euro payment due March 20, and to keep open the financing spigot from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Greece must persuade its creditors to take a hefty loss on their investments in order to unlock the aid money it needs to stay afloat, but talks are proving tough, making a messy default in March a real prospect.

The struggling sovereign, also racked by a five-year-old recession, must strike a deal to reduce its towering debt stock by 100 billion euros ($124 billion) to continue receiving bailout money from its European partners and the International Monetary Fund. But private creditors are baulking at current proposals. Bondholders are thought to be a mix of mainly European banks, wincing at the prospect of further writedowns on their loans, and hedge funds who bought the bonds cheaply and are looking to maximise their return.

Sovereign wealth funds, insurers and Greek pension funds also hold Greek debt. Around 206 billion euros of bonds are considered eligible for the deal, meaning debtholders are facing a minimum writedown of 50 per cent providing they all take part. The European Central Bank has significant holdings but is not considered a private creditor and has said it is not involved in the negotiations. The talks are likely to result in a default by some definitions.

Below are some of the possible outcomes of the talks:

GREECE SECURES A VOLUNTARY DEAL

If Greece can reach a deal with creditors on terms of a debt restructuring, private creditors will voluntarily swap their Greek bonds for new ones worth around half their original value. If the deal is to unlock aid funding and remain strictly voluntary, Greece needs to win the support of enough bondholders to reduce its debt stock by the required 100 billion euros. This would still be treated as a type of default by rating agencies, but would avoid a damaging uncontrolled default.

With financial markets sceptical a voluntary deal will be reached, this would be taken as a positive and could prompt investors to buy riskier assets such as stocks at the expense of traditional safe havens like German government bonds. The euro - a bellwether of sentiment towards the currency bloc as a whole - was also likely to rise, with some analysts looking at a return to $US1.30 against the dollar from its current levels around $US1.29.

However, positive sentiment was likely to be limited in scope by the multitude of euro zone problems left unresolved. A voluntary deal that is not binding on all holders of the debt is not likely to trigger payment of the $US3.22 billion of outstanding credit defaults swap (CDS) - insurance contracts designed to protect against a default.

GREECE SQUEEZES HOLD-OUTS

If Greece cannot persuade enough bondholders to sign up to the offered terms on a voluntary basis, it could turn to legal options to force those resisting a deal to swap their bonds. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has said he would consider introducing legislation to squeeze hold-outs into taking losses. Such laws are commonly known as collective action clauses (CACs) and rely on the support of a defined portion of bondholders agreeing to a deal, which would then be enforced for all creditors.

Bond markets could take such an outcome as a blueprint for similar action in Portugal and possibly Ireland, sending those countries' bond yields higher. Nevertheless, with a messy default off the table, the euro was expected to see an initial positive reaction. This may, analysts said, give way to longer-term structural concerns about the integrity of the currency bloc. Adding the CAC to bonds would probably not trigger a payment of CDS contracts, but activation of the clause was thought highly likely to lead to a payout.

TALKS END WITH NO AGREEMENT

If the talks break down without any consensus, Greece faces a slide towards a messy default with the repayment of a 14.5 billion euro bond looming on March 20. Greece does not have the money to repay bondholders, leading to a disorderly default - the outcome markets fear the most and one which may force Athens to abandon the common currency.

This outcome would threaten the highly inter-connected global banking system and many analysts say a wave of contagion larger than that seen in the wake of the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse could be set in motion.

The resulting flight towards low-risk assets would benefit highly liquid government bonds, such as German Bunds and US Treasuries, pushing yields sharply lower. Some forecast 10-year German yields could sink to 1 per cent from their current 1.8 per cent. The euro could extend its recent slide towards $US1.20, levels not see since the Greek crisis first peaked in June 2010. Shares in French banks, heavily exposed to Greece, were seen falling. Holders of CDS contracts would be paid out in the event that Greece failed to repay the bond.

LAST-MINUTE RESCUE

The closer the March 20 deadline, the more likely a potentially disastrous disorderly default becomes. The threat of this doomsday scenario could persuade international lenders to give Greece the money to repay its March bond. The International Monetary Fund has requested internal approval to start talks with Greece on "exceptional access" to the Fund. However, a last-minute rescue would reward speculative investors who bought Greek debt at deep discounts with a full payout - an outcome analysts believe would face strong political resistance.

Under this scenario, financial markets, cautious about the prospect of an unprecedented euro zone sovereign default, would trade in a volatile fashion with sentiment hinging on any signs that a deal was going to be reached. Safe-haven assets such as German Bunds were likely to be in high demand but susceptible to sharp sell-offs if a rescue was suddenly seen to be in the offing.

Source (Web)