Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Bharati and ABG Shipyard in a corporate tussle


The two largest private shipbuilders in India are involved in a takeover battle, and the battle seems to be becoming grueling with every day passing. As everyone must be aware, that both the companies wish to acquire the controlling stake in India's largest integrated offshore services player, i.e. Great Offshore.

Well, Bharati was the first mover and has acquired 22.48% till now, but soon ABG shipyard got involved and started creating problems for Bharati in its endeavor to acquire Great Offshore. ABG has over 8% stake in the company, and envisages acquisition of another 32%. Both the companies have been revising their offer prices. The last quoted price by Bharati Shipyard was Rs 560 per share, while that by ABG was Rs 520.

Bharati started buying at Rs 344, and just because ABG got involved, it has to quote Rs 560, up by almost 62%. To me, Bharati seems most likely of buying the controlling stake, and the chances of ABG being able to acquire further seems remote. This is because, Bharati has already shelved out Rs 305 Cr for acquiring the 22.48% stake, and even its open offer price is a lot higher than quoted by ABG shipyard.

Also, Bharati has huge cash reserves to support the buy out plan it has embarked upon. According to sources, the company has fixed deposits worth Rs 360 Cr, and it has further received the nod of shareholder's to raise the borrowing limit from Rs 5,000 Cr to Rs 7,000 Cr.


The most important point that makes me believe that ABG may not buy any further stake is that it would not like to have a control in the company, with its cut-throat competitor sitting on the board with almost quarter voting rights. Passing resolution can become utterly difficult in such situations, and there could be disharmony b/w the board members.

Thus, Bharati shipyard is most likely to be the prospective owner of Great Offshore, with ABG sitting on a minor gain, and also making Bharati shelving out more money, then it would have done had ABG not got involved.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Veer Energy and Infrastructure - Too pricey


Renewable energy and Go green are the buzzwords. Remember, we had e-commerce and every other thing with a prefix "e" garnering attention in early 2000. So similarly, green is what is gaining attention. The stock in focus these days is Veer energy and infrastructure.

Basic info

Veer Energy develops, implements, finances and operates large scale projects in the renewable energy sector, especially in wind energy. The main operations of the company correspond to windfarm development, and under this the activities carried out are : acquisition of land, micrositing, laying down of civil foundation, erection of wind turbines, setting up of electrical substations and carrying out operations and maintenance.

New Project

Now, the current buzz these days is due to recent announcement made by the management of the company. The company is proposing to set-up wind turbine generator farms of 200 MW capacity in the state of gujarat. The project includes wind farm development, like acquisition of land, foundation work, D.P. Yard and electrical work, install- erect- commission of wind turbines, and the company will set up own 200 M.W. substation for wind farm.

The total project size will be Rs 1200 crore, out of which the infrastructure part, which the company takes care of is going to be Rs 200 crore. Out of 1200 crore, Rs 200 crore will be infrastructure cost and the balance Rs 1000 crore is the wind turbine cost. The company is expecting the first supplies, i.e. the first phase to start off by September 2010 and intends to complete the full wind farm by March 2011.

Analysis


The company recorded Rs 30 Cr in revenue in 2007-08 and a net profit of Rs 1.7 Cr. Also, the company's revenue declined in 2008-09 to Rs 20 Cr, although the profit increased to Rs 2.1 Cr. The shareholders fund stand to Rs 5.29 Cr, and the debt portion stands at around Rs 5.41 Cr (Mar'09). The company has a working capital facility of Rs 9.44 Cr. I have mentioned the nos. to give an idea about the feasibility of the project.

So, as the management expects to complete the project by Mar 2011, it would need roughly Rs 190 Cr in another one and a half year time frame. Now with a total equity of Rs 5.3 Cr and a net profit of Rs 2 Cr annually, I find it really hard to digest the fact, that the management is expecting to complete the project by 2011.

Say, if the management is able to successfully complete a QIP issue, even then the company does not qualify as an investment option. The valuations are too high presently, and even by the estimates of the management, they see profit doubling in 2009-10. So, even at a profit of 4 Cr, the market is valuing the company too richly, and thus I see correction happening sooner or later.


Note:
The stocks discussed at MPS thru blog postings are neither a part of “Business Insights” issue nor a “Penny Stocks” which we reco/publish for paid subscribers. These are just stock specific views by MPS team; one MUST do the due diligence before doing any investment based on our reco.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

Monday, September 28, 2009

MIC Electronics- Seemingly good prospects, but one should wait


MIC Electronics Limited. is a leader in the design, development & manufacturing of LED Video Displays, high-end Electronic and Telecommunication equipment and development of Telecom software since 1988. Importantly, MIC has no real competitor in India in its LED business and is currently enjoying monopoly position in the market.

However, during the last one year, the performance of the company has deteriorated, and has not improved as evident from the latest June quarter results. The demand for its LED solutions seems to have shrunk in the last 1 year. So, does it culminate into an ever-lasting situation ? Well, not exactly.

Looking into the future, I can see enough demand for its LED true colour displays, and also for its LED lighting solutions, which have proved to be quite efficient. The LED lighting solutions are finding wide-spread usage, and should be omnipresent by the next decade, as LEDs represent the most energy and cost-efficient lighting source, consuming 10 times less power than CFLs and being biodegradable. In India, Railways is implementing LED lighting systems in a big way.

I would not put in numbers for the growth expected in the segment of LED displays, but a quick comparison with developed countries like US, UK really tell us that how short we are on our billboard advertizing expenditure, and thus with businesses growing like never before, advertizing is one space which will flourish like anything.

Performance


As I mentioned that performance was not that great over the last year. The company reported Rs 305 cr in revenues for 2008-09 and a bottomline of Rs 68 Cr, with diluted EPS at Rs 5.77. The performance was actually satisfactory till March, but the sales and profit dipped in the June quarter with both sales and profit dipping by more than 50% in the June quarter. The current market price stands at Rs 52, and if I take into account the diluted EPS (outstanding 1,74,81,725 convertible share warrants issued at Rs. 122/-each on preferential basis have been considered.), then the valuation satnds at a P/E of 9. However, the probability of conversion seems remote.

Fund Raising


MIC Electronics has decided to raise an amount of Rs 218.96 crore by issuing warrants to various promoters, non-promoters and from international markets. The company would offer 93,75,000 warrants at Rs 44.36 per share amounting to Rs 41.58 crore and would further issue 71,25,000 warrants at Rs 44.36 a piece, aggregating to Rs 31.60 crore to various promoters and non-promoters.

Further, the company would raise $30 million (nearly 145.77 crore) by issuing Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) and American Depository Receipts.

The company has contemplated resorting to another issuance of warrants, as I said earlier that the possibility of conversion of earlier issued warrants seems remote. Thus in effect we can consider the above accounted valuations, which is not that high. Although the future of the company seems good, but one should await positve developments in the income statement, before taking an exposure.


Note:
The stocks discussed at MPS thru blog postings are neither a part of “Business Insights” issue nor a “Penny Stocks” which we reco/publish for paid subscribers. These are just stock specific views by MPS team; one MUST do the due diligence before doing any investment based on our reco.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

Sunday, September 27, 2009

JK Rowling - The benefits of failure


As always, I enjoy reading and love sharing with you my readings of the commencement address of the great achievers. There's so much one can learn from these people, and therefore I make it a point to post something different from stocks on weekends.

J.K. Rowling, author of the best-selling Harry Potter book series, delivers her Commencement Address, “The Fringe Benefits of Failure,” at the Annual Meeting of the Harvard Alumni Association. She has explicitly explained the importance of the benefits of failure

The commencement address given is again long, but devoting two minutes of your entire day to this post can inspire you in many ways.

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President Faust, members of the Harvard Corporation and the Board of Overseers, members of the faculty, proud parents, and, above all, graduates.

The first thing I would like to say is ‘thank you.’ Not only has Harvard given me an extraordinary honor, but the weeks of fear and nausea I’ve experienced at the thought of giving this commencement address have made me lose weight. A win-win situation! Now all I have to do is take deep breaths, squint at the red banners and fool myself into believing I am at the world’s best-educated Harry Potter convention.

Delivering a commencement address is a great responsibility; or so I thought until I cast my mind back to my own graduation. The commencement speaker that day was the distinguished British philosopher Baroness Mary Warnock. Reflecting on her speech has helped me enormously in writing this one, because it turns out that I can’t remember a single word she said. This liberating discovery enables me to proceed without any fear that I might inadvertently influence you to abandon promising careers in business, law or politics for the giddy delights of becoming a gay wizard.

You see? If all you remember in years to come is the ‘gay wizard’ joke, I’ve still come out ahead of Baroness Mary Warnock. Achievable goals: the first step towards personal improvement.

Actually, I have wracked my mind and heart for what I ought to say to you today. I have asked myself what I wish I had known at my own graduation, and what important lessons I have learned in the 21 years that has expired between that day and this.

I have come up with two answers. On this wonderful day when we are gathered together to celebrate your academic success, I have decided to talk to you about the benefits of failure. And as you stand on the threshold of what is sometimes called ‘real life’, I want to extol the crucial importance of imagination.

These might seem quixotic or paradoxical choices, but please bear with me.

Looking back at the 21-year-old that I was at graduation, is a slightly uncomfortable experience for the 42-year-old that she has become. Half my lifetime ago, I was striking an uneasy balance between the ambition I had for myself, and what those closest to me expected of me.

I was convinced that the only thing I wanted to do, ever, was to write novels. However, my parents, both of whom came from impoverished backgrounds and neither of whom had been to college, took the view that my overactive imagination was an amusing personal quirk that could never pay a mortgage, or secure a pension.

They had hoped that I would take a vocational degree; I wanted to study English Literature. A compromise was reached that in retrospect satisfied nobody, and I went up to study Modern Languages. Hardly had my parents’ car rounded the corner at the end of the road than I ditched German and scuttled off down the Classics corridor.

I cannot remember telling my parents that I was studying Classics; they might well have found out for the first time on graduation day. Of all subjects on this planet, I think they would have been hard put to name one less useful than Greek mythology when it came to securing the keys to an executive bathroom.

I would like to make it clear, in parenthesis, that I do not blame my parents for their point of view. There is an expiry date on blaming your parents for steering you in the wrong direction; the moment you are old enough to take the wheel, responsibility lies with you. What is more, I cannot criticize my parents for hoping that I would never experience poverty. They had been poor themselves, and I have since been poor, and I quite agree with them that it is not an ennobling experience. Poverty entails fear, and stress, and sometimes depression; it means a thousand petty humiliations and hardships. Climbing out of poverty by your own efforts, that is indeed something on which to pride yourself, but poverty itself is romanticized only by fools.

What I feared most for myself at your age was not poverty, but failure.

At your age, in spite of a distinct lack of motivation at university, where I had spent far too long in the coffee bar writing stories, and far too little time at lectures, I had a knack for passing examinations, and that, for years, had been the measure of success in my life and that of my peers.

I am not dull enough to suppose that because you are young, gifted and well-educated, you have never known hardship or heartbreak. Talent and intelligence never yet inoculated anyone against the caprice of the Fates, and I do not for a moment suppose that everyone here has enjoyed an existence of unruffled privilege and contentment.

However, the fact that you are graduating from Harvard suggests that you are not very well-acquainted with failure. You might be driven by a fear of failure quite as much as a desire for success. Indeed, your conception of failure might not be too far from the average person’s idea of success, so high have you already flown academically.

Ultimately, we all have to decide for ourselves what constitutes failure, but the world is quite eager to give you a set of criteria if you let it. So I think it fair to say that by any conventional measure, a mere seven years after my graduation day, I had failed on an epic scale. An exceptionally short-lived marriage had imploded, and I was jobless, a lone parent, and as poor as it is possible to be in modern Britain, without being homeless. The fears my parents had had for me, and that I had had for myself, had both come to pass, and by every usual standard, I was the biggest failure I knew.

Now, I am not going to stand here and tell you that failure is fun. That period of my life was a dark one, and I had no idea that there was going to be what the press has since represented as a kind of fairy tale resolution. I had no idea how far the tunnel extended, and for a long time, any light at the end of it was a hope rather than a reality.

So why do I talk about the benefits of failure? Simply because failure meant a stripping away of the inessential. I stopped pretending to myself that I was anything other than what I was, and began to direct all my energy into finishing the only work that mattered to me. Had I really succeeded at anything else, I might never have found the determination to succeed in the one arena I believed I truly belonged. I was set free, because my greatest fear had already been realized, and I was still alive, and I still had a daughter whom I adored, and I had an old typewriter and a big idea. And so rock bottom became the solid foundation on which I rebuilt my life.

You might never fail on the scale I did, but some failure in life is inevitable. It is impossible to live without failing at something, unless you live so cautiously that you might as well not have lived at all - in which case, you fail by default.


Failure gave me an inner security that I had never attained by passing examinations. Failure taught me things about myself that I could have learned no other way. I discovered that I had a strong will, and more discipline than I had suspected; I also found out that I had friends whose value was truly above rubies.


The knowledge that you have emerged wiser and stronger from setbacks means that you are, ever after, secure in your ability to survive. You will never truly know yourself, or the strength of your relationships, until both have been tested by adversity. Such knowledge is a true gift, for all that it is painfully won, and it has been worth more to me than any qualification I ever earned.


Given a time machine or a Time Turner, I would tell my 21-year-old self that personal happiness lies in knowing that life is not a check-list of acquisition or achievement. Your qualifications, your CV, are not your life, though you will meet many people of my age and older who confuse the two. Life is difficult, and complicated, and beyond anyone’s total control, and the humility to know that will enable you to survive its vicissitudes.


- Team MPS

Friday, September 25, 2009

ICSA India : Worth its price.


It is said that a unit of energy saved would approximately be equal to two units of energy generated, and ICSA-India does just that, i.e. help India save energy by reducing line losses. ICSA primarily caters to the power sector and more specifically to the transmission and distribution sector through its embedded solutions.

Under embedded solutions, ICSA provides controllers for power substations and distribution transformers, and automatic meter readers. It has patented technology to provide remote terminal units for remote monitoring and controlling power substation parameters, while its infrastructure division provides design, supply, and erection of transmission lines and substations.

In the last 4 years company has increased its revenues by more than 10 times from a meager 84 Cr in FY2005-06 to Rs 1113 Cr, while the bottom line has also moved in tandem from Rs 17 Cr to Rs 168 Cr for the same period. But, if we consider this year results then although there was a good growth in terms of revenues, but the net profit could not register the growth as is expected from ICSA-India. Also for quarter ending June there's a slight decline in PAT to Rs 34 Cr from Rs 40 Cr. I have mentioned about these figures, as there has been a percentage change in revenue accruing from its two segments i.e. Embedded solutions and software services & Infrastructure projects and services.

Traditionally embedded solutions account for more than half of the total revenue. However, in recent quarters, its share has gone down with Infrastructure projects and services accounting for more. So, the reason for decline in profits is clear as Infrastructure services do not enjoy the same margins as embedded solutions. However, with advent of Restructured Accelerated Power Development and Reforms Programme (RAPDRP ), revenue from embedded solutions is expected to increase for next few quarters.

Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme:

Covers the renovation and modernisation of sub-stations, transmission lines, distribution transformers, consumer meters, high-voltage distribution system and computerised billing. The scheme targets the reduction of T&D losses by 15 per cent by the end of the Eleventh Plan, and this should augur well for ICSA's growth prospects.

Investment Rationale


Although we cannot expect ICSA to grow the way it has done in past, but at the current market price of Rs 210, with a market cap in excess of Rs 950 Cr, and a trailing tweleve month P/E of 6.39, ICSA-India provides reasonable investment option. Also with R-APDRP now in place, a growth driver is attached to it for atleast 2-3 years.


Note:
The stocks discussed at MPS thru blog postings are neither a part of “Business Insights” issue nor a “Penny Stocks” which we reco/publish for paid subscribers. These are just stock specific views by MPS team; one MUST do the due diligence before doing any investment based on our reco.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Circuit breaker- Let's understand its purpose


We all know, that how sometimes market behaves irrationally or goes completely insane. Well, when the markets go beyond a specified limit within a short span of trading time, circuit limits are brought into operation to restore a sense of sanity. Many people are still not aware as to why trading in the Sensex and Nifty was halted, on the day UPAs victory was confirmed.

Circuit Limits- Sensex

As I said earlier that when the markets go beyond a specified limit within a short span of trading time, circuit limits are brought into operation to restore a sense of sanity. This is true of individual stocks and broader markets. The individual stocks that are not covered under Future and Options segment have different circuit limits pertaining to them.

The halt in trading makes stakeholders take note of what is happening before buying or selling stocks. This is done to tone down trading decisions based on irrational exuberance or overtly pessimistic reaction towards any development at the macro-economic, market, or company levels.

Though no stock on the Sensex or the Nifty has a circuit filter, SEBI has mandated a market-wide circuit for 10, 15 and 20 per cent movement (upward or downward) in either of these indices. The following are the guidelines for imposing circuit breakers.

If there is a 10 per cent movement in either index within 1 p.m (trading starts at 9.55 a.m.), a one hour halt in trading is imposed. In case the movement takes place after 1 p.m but before 2:30 p.m., there will be a trading halt for 30 minutes. But if this level is crossed after 2.30 p.m., there is no circuit limit for the rest of the day. For a 15 per cent movement in either index, trading is halted for two hours if it happens before 1 p. m.. If the 15 per cent level is breached after 1 p.m. but before 2 p.m., one hour stoppage in trading is implemented. But if it happens after 2 p.m, trading is halted for the rest of the day. For a 20 per cent movement in either index, the trading will be stopped for the rest of the day.

There is another finer point in this circuit breaker calculation. The percentage is calculated on the closing value of the Sensex or the Nifty on the last day of the immediate preceding quarter.

Circuit Limits- Individual stocks

The stocks under F&O do not have a circuit filter. However, other individual stocks do have a circuit limit of 5, 10 & 20%, varying from one another. We all have experienced disgust on how sometimes the stocks in which we have invested are not allowed to increase beyond 5% on a particular day. This is because of the circuit limit of 5%. But, we also feel nice when the opposite happens. So, it's a part and parcel of the whole investment process in stock markets.

When a stock hits a 20% circuit limit (upside or downside) on two consecutive days, then it's circuit limit is brought down to 10%. Similarly if 10% circuit limit is reached on two consecutive days, the limit is brought down to 5%. The circuit limits are again revised after some days, taking into account different factors. The purpose behind such a move is again same of restoring sanity in the operations of the stock market.

-
Team MPS

Glory Polyfims Ltd.- Don't fall in for the substantial drop in price


The question these days doing the floating is whether Glory Polyfilms ltd, provides a good investment opportunity. The stock price has come from Rs 208 level to current market price of Rs 24.


The Company manufactures extruded multi layer barrier film, flexible laminates printed/unprinted. Co-extruded film has multiple/diverse applications as a packaging material for food, Liquids like Milk and Edible Oil and non-food items. The company's presence in both multi layer barrier film and flexible laminated packaging make its integrated player with ability to supply timely quality material at a competitive price. The Company is also engaged in Rotogravure printing of flexible laminated packaging material.

Well these were some basic details about the operations of the company. Lets now come to the analysis part.

In the packaging market, the supply currently outstrips the demand and this is unlikely to change. The above situation would create pressure on the Company's margin, as rising crude price will escalate the cost of production and lead to over supply. In view of this glut, it won't even be able to pass on the cost burden to its customers.

The company has proposed a plan to raise funds upto US$ 25 Million, for the purpose of meeting the capital expenditure, expansion and such other purposes through issue of FCCBs / GDRs / ADRs / Qualified Institutional placement. This move will dilute further promoter holding, which has already come down from 53% during early 2007 to sub 30% presently. Recently, the company received intimation from M/s. Hanurang Vinimay Pvt Ltd stating that they have invoked 600000 Equity Shares pledged by Mr. Yogesh P Kela (Promoter Director) as security against loan and further M/s. Hanurang Vinimay Pvt Ltd, has sold 5,49,378 shares in the open market out of the invoked shares. So, taking into account the above invoking of shares, the promoter holding, will come down by another 2-3%.

Frankly speaking, I am not that bullish on this business. The opportunities may increase in case of flexible packaging, but on the same hand, there are numerous players operating in the same domain. There many companies listed on BSE, which do the same work. So, in all the competition is huge.

The stock price has come down substantially, but there were no firm reasons for it to rally during 2008, so the present levels are justified, and there is nothing abnormal for it to quote at 24-25.


Note:
The stocks discussed at MPS thru blog postings are neither a part of “Business Insights” issue nor a “Penny Stocks” which we reco/publish for paid subscribers. These are just stock specific views by MPS team; one MUST do the due diligence before doing any investment based on our reco.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Concentrate on long term prspects and you are bound to make good money


We all have witnessed an almost unprecedented run in the market in the last 6 months. The market has run up by more than 100% from its lows, and we have people scouting to predict the level of market in the next few months or 2-3 years. Well, I find it really opportunistic of them to come out with such targets.

I remember, that when the broader indices were languishing in the early 2009, they never came out saying that Sensex will reach 20k or 30k. They were rather predicting a further fall to 6000 from 7800 for Sensex. Now, when the Sensex and Nifty have recovered, they have put on a new mask, and are sounding bullish. Importantly, they always come out so confidently with their arguments, and don't even feel embarrassed, when they have to do a volteface.

These days there are again many voices in the markets predicting the near-term direction which is leading to many investors being confused on whether to enter the markets, book profits, or remain invested. The people voicing their opinions are again those, who enjoy predicting the movement of the market in the medium or short term. But let me tell you, that the market always comes out smarter and betray the so called intelligent analysts.

I really don't feel the need to predict the movement of market, because this is one of those exercises, where if you succeed once, you will falter the next time. A few days back, I had mentioned that we are still a long way to go before being reckoned as a developed economy.

This points to just one thing, that even if there are some glitches on our path to growth, we are still going to do a lot better than others. So, one really does need to worry about, what might happen in the next few months, as over a longer period of time, the period of slow growth will only be remembered as blips and nothing else.

Recently I came across an article in a leading financial daily about how the combined wealth of the country’s top-20 promoter families, based on their equity holding, has swelled to Rs 8.43 lakh crore, or $174 billion. So, they have recovered most of the value they had lost, but most of the retail investors panicked during the bear run and sold off their investments in good companies, whereas if they had not panicked, even they would have recovered.

So, all I want to say is that, long term prospects are very bright and therefore one should avoid taking decisions w.r.t investment on the basis of voices aired by the so called analysts speaking on television.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Direct Tax code- Will affect long term investors, if implemented as it is


Well, till now long term investors (investment of more than one year in any share) were enjoying complete tax relief on capital gain arising from such investments. But, The direct tax code (DTC), which the government intends to apply from April 2011, contains large-scale changes with respect to capital gain taxation. In the new regime, there will be no distinction between long-term and short-term gains as is practiced currently. All capital gain income has to be aggregated with other income and taxed as per slab rates applicable to the taxpayer.

In other words, the current exemption for long-term capital gains on equity and equity mutual funds will stand eliminated. Even the concessional rate of 10/ 20% on non-equity long-term gains will no longer be applicable. On the positive side, the securities transaction tax will not be payable.

Some of the salient features relating to Capital gains are as below :


  1. Income from Transactions in ALL Investment Assets,except for personal effects and agricultural land, will be classified under Capital Gains and taxed under this head All Gains and Loss have to be included in the Total Income in the Financial Year in which the Transfer of the Asset takes place,irrespective of when the Consideration is received.
  2. The distinction between Short Term and Long Term Gains and Loss is eliminated.
  3. Securities Transaction Tax to be abolished.
  4. Base Date for determining Cost of Acquisition for the purpose of computing Capital gains or Loss is shifted from April 1,1981 to April 1,2000.
  5. Indexation benefit will be allowed for those assets that are transferred after one year from the end of the Financial Year in which they were acquired. This is a very important point,as it makes a distinction between the earlier one year from the date of acquisition. Thus if an asset was acquired in May 2010,you will get the benefit of Indexation only if you transfer this asset post March 2012 and not post April 2011.

If the above clauses are not favorably altered or modified after discussion,then there might happen heavy selling in Stocks towards 2011, because,if Investors do not sell before April 2011,all their gains,when they actually do sell,will be taxed higher. High Networth Individuals will see a straight 30% tax on gains,which otherwise would have attracted no tax if long term or lower tax if short term and if sold of by March 2011.

- Team MPS

Friday, September 18, 2009

We are at the best juncture of India growth story


I have put down some figures pertaining to the economy of US. These figures are humongous compared to the GDP of India. India's GDP has barely touched $1 trillion, while US's GDP stands in excess of $14 trillion. If I compare the figures, then in the terminology of capital market, I find India as a penny stock with great potential, and US a large cap. I feel that next 40-50 years are best for India, in terms of growth that can be achieved, and therefore, it's the best time to invest in Corporate India, from the perspective of long term investing. Sometime soon, we will be able to count ourselves as Mid-cap or even large cap, as we are calling ourselves penny stock.

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The war on terror cost hundreds of billions of dollars in 2008, and was projected to rise in 2009. Since 2001, the total cost of the war has exceeded $2 trillion.

The years from 2000-2008 brought in the five biggest budget deficits in America's history. In 2008, the federal budget deficit exceeded $450 billion – an all-time high at the time. In 2009, the budget deficit is expected to exceed $700 billion. That deficit figure was highly unforeseeable (if not unimaginable) merely a decade earlier.

2008 saw the U.S. hit a 53-year high for national debt as a percentage of GDP. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the national debt clock in Times Square ran out of space, and had to eliminate the dollar sign in order to add another zero to the government's debt. As of October 2008, the national debt exceeded $10 trillion for the first time. Merely three months later, the national debt exceed $10.6 trillion, and at the time, some were expecting the national debt to increase by $1 trillion within the next year.

To facilitate the national debt, the federal government had to borrow more money, much of which came from foreign sources including the Middle East, Europe, China and others. Additional liabilities on the balance sheet means that the government has to set aside interest payments that could otherwise be spent on education, healthcare, infrastructure and military programs. Interest payments are essentially a zero sum expenditure with high opportunity costs.

A U.S. and global economic recession not seen since World War II was placing financial stress on citizens, affecting the lower, middle, and upper classes. Wall Street's poorest performance since the Great Depression of the 1930s saw stock market wealth worth $6.9 trillion wiped out during 2008.

Over one million jobs were eliminated in the U.S. in 2008, which contributed to the unemployment rate approaching 8%. With U.S. per capita earnings of $48,000, one million layoffs translate to approximately $48 billion in eliminated payroll and earnings for working families. These statistics do not include under-employment figures in the country – it is estimated that one out of nine Americans are underemployed. As of 2007, approximately 12.5% of Americans lived below the poverty line.

The housing collapse was expected to require government intervention and action on mortgages that require over $1 trillion. American homeowners saw over $1.9 trillion in home values wiped out in 2008. A frozen credit market forced the government to spend several hundred billion dollars through a stimulus package. Continued frozen credit facilities through 2009 made the economic downturn of 2008-2009 more protracted and more costly for the government.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Nitin Khara- A born winner


Dear Subscribers,

This article was shared with us by one of our active subscribers. The article provides details on the journey of Mr. Nitin Khara - Managing Director, Confidence Petroleum Ltd. The article might help investors regain confidence about the prospects of Confidence Petroleum Ltd.

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Born into a middle-class Gujrathi family, he grew up to become one of the very successful first generation entrepreneurs. He grew up inculcating all the good values of being a good person, an honest citizen and an ambitious leader.

His growth path started with a small venture into stainless steel business with limited capital from his pocket in the year 1985. Within a span of 8 years he had gathered enough experience and courage to take over a LPG cylinder manufacturing unit in Mandeedip, in M.P. From here began the growth of a true businessman whose vision was great, who could take risks and who had the courage to trade on paths un-trodden.

Hereafter it was more takeovers and acquisitions of cylinder manufacturing plants which he continued to do very confidently. Start of Bottling plant network :

Then came the Government’s hints that it may allow private companies to enter the field of domestic LPG marketing. Mr. Khara tapped the opportunity and “Gaspoint Petroleum (India) Ltd.” took birth in the year 1999. Under this banner, the company went on with opening of LPG bottling plants all over India. They were with the view of reaching out to the public as a whole.

The network of bottling plants increased steadily and now the company operates through its bottling plants in total 22 states all over India. The company caters to bottling requirements for all major Public Sector units including HPCL, BPCL, IOCL and also to private companies like Leader and Shell gas.

Manufacturing in big way:


The company acquired one after the other cylinder manufacturing units and became the largest cylinder manufacturer in the country.

* The acquisitions and takeovers can be summarized as below :
* Andhra Cylinders, Hyderabad in the year 1997.
* Maharashtra Cylinders Private Limited, Nagpur taken over in 1997.
* Karnool cylinders, Karnool, taken over in 1998.
* Sanuj Steels Private Limited, Khopoli taken over in 1999.
* Mercury Cylinders Pvt. Ltd., Mathura taken over in 2000.
* Devrasa Gas Chem Ltd.

Under his leadership the company revived the Khopoli plant to become Asia’s largest cylinder manufacturing plant.

The company is largest supplier of cylinders to major oil companies like HPCL, BPCL, IOCL and some other private companies like Reliance and Shell.

Formation of Confidence Group :


With his presence in all LPG related activities it was time to go national. He acquired a stock listed company with the name of “Devrasa Gas Chem” and renamed it as Confidence Petroleum India Ltd. Thus now his company was Bombay stock exchange listed. His phenomenal growth path continued herein as well and the shares of the company recorded a path breaking increase in prices in a short period of time. Once again Mr. Khara was in news, this time on National news channels as winner.

Confident as he is, he ventured into the Global securities market with a GDR listing. Again emerging as winner he not earned his company good share, but also an international acknowledgment.

Latest Ventures :


Visionary as he is, Mr. Khara is busy in some international tie ups that may give Indian LPG market a big technological boom. In view of the changing market scenario, where technology plays a vital role in any business, he is bringing the latest and the most modern one to India. The company’s latest venture is in the field of Auto LPG. In the initial phases, the company has plans to launch 150 Auto LPG Dispensing Stations (ALDS) all over India. The stations are specifically designed for maximum customer comfort and safety. The next phase includes setting up of Auto LPG Cylinder Manufacturing Units.

Global Businessman :


Mr. Khara’s vision has already seen the opportunity that lies in alternate sources of fuel to cater the ever increasing need of the society. He has ambitious plans for making the Natural Gas available in the country viable and usable to the society as a whole.

This includes some technological innovations to be brought in from other developed countries. He plans to make CNG & LPG as the parallel sources available under the banner of his company – Confidence Group of Compnaies.

One more sector he is venturing into is the Automatic Meter Reading technology. The system works on Radio Frequency and is one of its kind. The knowledge sharing agreements with an Israel company called Miltel are through and the products are being tested in India.

Socialite :


Mr. Nitin Khara is not only an accomplished businessman but also has a great presence in social and community activities. His leadership qualities come in play in taking him to the top in every activity that he undertook. Some of the chairs currently dawned by him are:

1. Director in Vardhman Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd.
2. Vice President – All India Parallel LPG Federation
3. Chairman – Mahavir International
4. Vice President – ‘Sankalp’ a social organization.
5. Trusty – Sakal Jain Foundation
6. Trusty – Shree Vardhman Sthanakwasi Jain Shrawak Sangh
7. Trusty – Vanrai – a social group
8. Executive Member – Jain Social Group
9. Trusty – Shree Gujrathi Samaj
10. Member – Vidarbha Industries Association (VIA)
11. Member – Nag Vidarbha Chamber
12. Member – Lions Club

Awards and Achievements :


This journey has given a lot of satisfaction and accolades to Mr. Khara in the form of various awards won by him. Some of the major awards are :

Presented with memento for Outstanding and meritorious contribution at the hands of then President of Lions Club in the year 1995-1996. Jay Maharashtra Smruti Chinha for outstanding achievements in the field of business at the hands of Sh. Vilasrao Deshmukh in the year 1999. Udyog Patra – by “Institute of Trade and Industrial Development” in the year 2002 at the hands of the then Labour minister Sh.Satyanarayan Jatiya during “16th Economic Development Conference”. Rashtriya Udyog Ratan Award by IOBRD.

- Team MPS

Monday, September 14, 2009

Value pick for the month of September - Venkys India Ltd (BSE CODE - 523261)


Dear Subscribers,

Please find details on the value pick of the month "Venkys India Ltd. (BSE CODE - 523261)"

Venky's India

Venky's (India) Ltd (VIL) formerly known as Western Hatcheries (WHL) was incorporated in 1976 and is a part of Rs.1300 crore Venkateswara Hatcheries (VH) Group The company, engaged in poultry breeding, producing eggs and hatching layer and broiler chicks and is one of the most integrated poultry player in the country. It is also involved in rearing of pureline breeds, grandparent and parent stock, sale of commercial day old chicks (DOCs), processed chicken, as well as related requirements of the sector such as poultry feed, medicines and health products.

Venky’s India, the reason is that this company is a leader in its business segment. When one thinks of poultry, Venky’s is the number one player in the industry and this is an industry where there is no distant number 2. So the business is very good. During the financial year 2008-09, industrial production growth came down as compared to the previous year. While most of the industries showed a decline, the poultry industry managed to withstand the impact of global meltdown as the industry in India is primarily domestic demand driven.

Inflation and other growth drivers


Although the figure for WPI (Wholesale Price index) is negative, but if one considers the CPI (Consumer price Index), then its very clear that the common man is still reeling under the pressure of increasing food prices. Everyone is aware that prices for vegetables and other food items have skyrocketed. Prices of all commodities - be it rice, wheat or vegetables are going up. I think this is going to lead to increased demand for poultry products, of course there are some very evident risk in their business that of the bird flu, which affect the sentiments for sometime, but such news remain largely shortlived.

The vast gap between our present per capita consumption (52 eggs and 3.1 kg of poultry meat) and National Institute of Nutrition (NIN) recommended level (180 eggs and 11 kg of poultry meat) offers a tremendous opportunity for the growth of poultry industry for several years to come.

The allocation for Mid-Day Meal program has been stepped up significantly by Central and State Governments. The Tamil Nadu Government has increased it from 2 eggs to 3 eggs per week. NECC is constantly following up with various State Governments for Inclusion of eggs in the Mid-Day Meal Programme.

Performance

The Company's sales turnover registered a growth of 9% for the year FY2008-09 at Rs.570.26 crores as compared to Rs.524.89 crores In the previous year. Profit before tax declined by 30% at Rs.31.04 crores as compared to Rs.41.82 crores.

The profitability of the Company was affected due to steep increase in price of soya and maize (the key ingredients of poultry feed) and the Company could not pass on the increase to its customers especially during the period July, 2008 to September, 2008.

However with increasing prices for various other food items, I believe that this company will be able to pass on the increased maize prices in the form of higher poultry prices because of which, the prices of poultry products can go up in the future. There's an improvement in performance for June quarter where the sales turnover registered a growth of 19% at Rs 169 Cr over June'08. Also the PAT improved by 15% at Rs 11.1 Cr for the same period.

Valuations


So this is a company where we like the business, we like the leadership status of the company, the fact that it is a scalable business, the fact that it is trading at a very reasonable price to earning ratio of about 6 and a very reasonable marketcap of just about Rs 130 crore, so from these levels the downside looks restricted. The fact that the current market price is below the book value of Rs 167, provides a very good investment opportunity, in terms of both valuations and growth outlook.
-
Basic Info:-
  • CMP = Rs 144-147, as on Sept 14th 2009. [Check the CMP Now!!!]
  • EPS = 23.42 & PE = 6.28
  • Book Value = 167
  • Mcap = 130-138Cr
  • 52 week's high/low = Rs 157/65
  • During last 5 years : Lowest price = Rs70 & Lowest PE = 2.61 in Jan 2009
  • During last 5 years : Highest price = Rs 281 & Highest PE = 17.39 in Jan 2008

-Team MPS

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Saturday, September 12, 2009

Update On : Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd (Code : 511607) : Buy with SL @ 74.

It was Sept 9th (Wed) when we came out with this stock reco as a promotional call from SLT (Our trading unit) grouped under "Sure Call". The calls given was like this...

Promotional Call from www.stoplosstrade.com : Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd (BSE Code : 511607) : Sure Call : Buy Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd (Code : 511607) around Rs86-90, SL 80, TGT 120 in next 10-15 days.

On Sept 9th it was in UC (5% up) but during last 2 days, Sept 10th & 11th it fell down by 5% and just below the SL of 80. On Sept 11th it was in the range of 85.7 - 79.05 and finally closed at Rs79.05. Profit booking at any count can't be timed and it is obvious. Moreover the holding period was 10-15 days with TGT 120. Issue here was SL was kept at 80 which was triggered on Friday.

- We got various comments like we are following the herd; this stock has gained around 120% in last one month (stocks can move up or comes down way beyond our expectations, hence don't say 100% is more or 200% is more!!!) and we are recommending it at almost end of its rally (does anyone knows when a rally ends?) so and so. To be very frank it is good to be critic, at least it motivates us to work harder and harder because at the end of the day your trust is what we earn!!!

Now, it's times to provide update on .....Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd : It is difficult to say how long this profit booking will continue. One can keep SL at 74, in case if it falls below this then better to exit and take position only when upward move starts.
  • CMP as on Sept 11th = 79.05 (5% down with total volume of 50K shares, means a trade of Rs 40 lac)
  • EPS = 2.52 ; Mcap = 47.43Cr
  • During last 5 years:-
    Lowest Price = Rs 5.23 in Jan 2005 & Highest Price = Rs 86 on Sept 10th 2009 ;
    Lowest PE = 6.67 in Jan 2005 & Highest PE = 236 in Feb 2008; Current PE = 32-35

Trigger for this call: On Aug 31st 2009 Birla Shloka Edutech, the Yash Birla group company, has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI). It is planning to raise around Rs 34.78 crore via this follow-on public offer. One can download DRHP from the link below:- http://www.sebi.gov.in/dp/birlashloka.pdf
Let us have a look at the various follow-on issues in the past & future:-

  • In late 2006, Tanla Solutions also came with Follow on Public Offer raising Rs421Cr (not to forget that issue was 38 times oversubscribed). They offered 1.59 crore equity shares forming about 28.59 per cent of the fully diluted post issue paid-up capital of the company. Prior to the issue Mcap of Tanla was Rs 1000Cr. Post this issue Mcap of Tanla was Rs1400Cr. Usually when a company comes with follow-on public issues they offer 25-30% equity share post dilution to the public.
  • State-run UCO Bank, may float Rs 800-850 crore follow-on issue in the third quarter ending December 31, 2009. Presently, the government holding in UCO Bank is 64%. After the follow-on issue, the government's holding will fall to 51%. Here too you can see follow-on issue is just 13% of the equity base.
  • REC is going to issue 17 crore new shares in public offer. Equity base will rise 20% post share sale. Again, REC is coming with 20% dilution in equity thru follow-on offer.
    Earlier, the company had come out with an initial public offering (IPO) in February 2008 and raised more than Rs 1,600 crore.

What we want to convey is, that a follow-on public offer usually comes with 25-30% of the fully diluted post issue paid-up capital of the company.

Assuming the similar case in Birla Shloka Edutech Ltd.

  • Total equity share (FV = 10) at present = 59 lac
  • Birla Shloka to raise Rs 34.78 cr via follow-on offer, assuming 34.78Cr capital will be approx 30% of the Mcap post this issue. Hence, 100% of Mcap post the issue must be approx Rs 115Cr.
  • Current Mcap of this company is Rs47.43Cr, it has to increase to Rs80.5Cr by the time the follow on public issue hit the market. In order to justify Rs 80.5Cr valuation, share price of this company will be ruling around Rs 136 (Mcap = Rs80.5Cr with Equity Share = 59 lac).
  • Usually follow-on offer comes at the current ruling price hence, the company will issue approx 25 lac shares at Rs125-135 price band in order to raise Rs34.78Cr capital in follow on public offer.
  • Total equity share (FV = 10) post follow on issue = 59 lac + 25 lac = 84 lac shares with market price running around Rs125-135.

We have taken 2 assumptions:

  1. Company is going to issue not more than 30% of post diluted equity in follow-on offer. Based on the previous experience we have never seen a company issuing more than 30% in follow-on offer.
  2. Their follow-on offer will successfully get subscribed. Looking at the current market uptrend any education company can raise money, and this one is Yash Birla Company so we don't see any issue.

Now, if we are proved correct, then there is going to be at least upside move from Rs80 to Rs120 (to be on the conservative side) which is 50% returns in short/medium term (by the time issue hit the market). But one MUST keep the SL at 74 and enter at lower levels in case if profit booking get prolonged.

-Sandeep Jain, Senior Associate, HBJ Capital

Mr N R Narayana Murthy - Pre-commencement address at the New York University to the students at the Stern School of Business


Mr N R Narayana Murthy,Chief Mentor and Co Founder of Infosys Technologies, in his May 9,2007 pre-commencement address at the New York University to the students at the Stern School of Business encapsulates how he has evolved to what he is today.

As always, I believe we should learn from both the failures and the success of people, and should carve our own niche, and therefore would like to share with you the pre-commencement address of Mr. Murthy

-----------

Cheers,

Dean Cooley, faculty, staff, distinguished guests, and, most importantly, the graduating class of 2007, it is a great privilege to speak at your commencement ceremonies.

I thank Dean Cooley and Prof Marti Subrahmanyam for their kind invitation. I am exhilarated to be part of such a joyous occasion. Congratulations to you, the class of 2007, on completing an important milestone in your life journey.

After some thought, I have decided to share with you some of my life lessons. I learned these lessons in the context of my early career struggles, a life lived under the influence of sometimes unplanned events which were the crucibles that tempered my character and reshaped my future.

I would like first to share some of these key life events with you, in the hope that these may help you understand my struggles and how chance events and unplanned encounters with influential persons shaped my life and career.

Later, I will share the deeper life lessons that I have learned. My sincere hope is that this sharing will help you see your own trials and tribulations for the hidden blessings they can be.

The first event occurred when I was a graduate student in Control Theory at IIT, Kanpur , in India. At breakfast on a bright Sunday morning in 1968, I had a chance encounter with a famous computer scientist on sabbatical from a well-known US university.

He was discussing exciting new developments in the field of computer science with a large group of students and how such developments would alter our future. He was articulate, passionate and quite convincing. I was hooked. I went straight from breakfast to the library, read four or five papers he had suggested, and left the library determined to study computer science.

Friends, when I look back today at that pivotal meeting, I marvel at how one role model can alter for the better the future of a young student. This experience taught me that valuable advice can sometimes come from an unexpected source, and chance events can sometimes open new doors.

The next event that left an indelible mark on me occurred in 1974. The location: Nis , a border town between former Yugoslavia, now Serbia, and Bulgaria. I was hitchhiking from Paris back to Mysore, India, my home town.

By the time a kind driver dropped me at Nis railway station at 9 p.m.on a Saturday night, the restaurant was closed. So was the bank the next morning, and I could not eat because I had no local money. I slept on the railway platform until 8.30 pm in the night when the Sofia Express pulled in.

The only passengers in my compartment were a girl and a boy. I struck a conversation in French with the young girl. She talked about the travails of living in an iron curtain country, until we were roughly interrupted by some policemen who, I later gathered, were summoned by the young man who thought we were criticising the communist government of Bulgaria.

The girl was led away; my backpack and sleeping bag were confiscated. I was dragged along the platform into a small 8×8 foot room with a cold stone floor and a hole in one corner by way of toilet facilities. I was held in that bitterly cold room without food or water for over 72 hours.

I had lost all hope of ever seeing the outside world again, when the door opened. I was again dragged out unceremoniously, locked up in the guard’s compartment on a departing freight train and told that I would be released 20 hours later upon reaching Istanbul. The guard’s final words still ring in my ears – “You are from a friendly country called India and that is why we are letting you go!”

The journey to Istanbul was lonely, and I was starving. This long, lonely, cold journey forced me to deeply rethink my convictions about Communism. Early on a dark Thursday morning, after being hungry for 108 hours, I was purged of any last vestiges of affinity for the Left.

I concluded that entrepreneurship, resulting in large-scale job creation, was the only viable mechanism for eradicating poverty in societies.

Deep in my heart, I always thank the Bulgarian guards for transforming me from a confused Leftist into a determined, compassionate capitalist!

Inevitably, this sequence of events led to the eventual founding of Infosys in 1981.

While these first two events were rather fortuitous, the next two, both concerning the Infosys journey, were more planned and profoundly influenced my career trajectory.

On a chilly Saturday morning in winter 1990, five of the seven founders of Infosys met in our small office in a leafy Bangalore suburb. The decision at hand was the possible sale of Infosys for the enticing sum of $1 million. After nine years of toil in the then business-unfriendly India, we were quite happy at the prospect of seeing at least some money.

I let my younger colleagues talk about their future plans. Discussions about the travails of our journey thus far and our future challenges went on for about four hours. I had not yet spoken a word.

Finally, it was my turn. I spoke about our journey from a small Mumbai apartment in 1981 that had been beset with many challenges, but also of how I believed we were at the darkest hour before the dawn. I then took an audacious step. If they were all bent upon selling the company, I said, I would buy out all my colleagues, though I did not have a cent in my pocket.

There was a stunned silence in the room. My colleagues wondered aloud about my foolhardiness. But I remained silent. However, after an hour of my arguments, my colleagues changed their minds to my way of thinking. I urged them that if we wanted to create a great company, we should be optimistic and confident. They have more than lived up to their promise of that day.

In the seventeen years since that day, Infosys has grown to revenues in excess of $3.0 billion, a net income of more than $800 million and a market capitalisation of more than $28 billion, 28,000 times richer than the offer of $1 million on that day.

In the process, Infosys has created more than 70,000 well-paying jobs, 2,000-plus dollar-millionaires and 20,000-plus rupee millionaires.

A final story: On a hot summer morning in 1995, a Fortune-10 corporation had sequestered all their Indian software vendors, including Infosys, in different rooms at the Taj Residency hotel in Bangalore so that the vendors could not communicate with one another. This customer’s propensity for tough negotiations was well-known. Our team was very nervous. First of all, with revenues of only around $5 million, we were minnows compared to the customer.

Second, this customer contributed fully 25% of our revenues. The loss of this business would potentially devastate our recently-listed company. Third, the customer’s negotiation style was very aggressive. The customer team would go from room to room, get the best terms out of each vendor and then pit one vendor against the other. This went on for several rounds. Our various arguments why a fair price – one that allowed us to invest in good people, R&D, infrastructure, technology and training — was actually in their interest failed to cut any ice with the customer.

By 5 p.m.on the last day, we had to make a decision right on the spot whether to accept the customer’s terms or to walk out.

All eyes were on me as I mulled over the decision. I closed my eyes, and reflected upon our journey until then. Through many a tough call, we had always thought about the long-term interests of Infosys. I communicated clearly to the customer team that we could not accept their terms, since it could well lead us to letting them down later. But I promised a smooth, professional transition to a vendor of customer’s choice. This was a turning point for Infosys.

Subsequently, we created a Risk Mitigation Council which ensured that we would never again depend too much on any one client, technology, country, application area or key employee. The crisis was a blessing in disguise. Today, Infosys has a sound de-risking strategy that has stabilised its revenues and profits.

I want to share with you, next, the life lessons these events have taught me.

  • I will begin with the importance of learning from experience. It is less important, I believe, where you start. It is more important how and what you learn. If the quality of the learning is high, the development gradient is steep, and, given time, you can find yourself in a previously unattainable place. I believe the Infosys story is living proof of this. Learning from experience, however, can be complicated. It can be much more difficult to learn from success than from failure. If we fail, we think carefully about the precise cause. Success can indiscriminately reinforce all our prior actions.
  • A second theme concerns the power of chance events. As I think across a wide variety of settings in my life, I am struck by the incredible role played by the interplay of chance events with intentional choices. While the turning points themselves are indeed often fortuitous, how we respond to them is anything but so. It is this very quality of how we respond systematically to chance events that is crucial.
  • Of course, the mindset one works with is also quite critical. As recent work by the psychologist, Carol Dweck, has shown, it matters greatly whether one believes in ability as inherent or that it can be developed. Put simply, the former view, a fixed mindset, creates a tendency to avoid challenges, to ignore useful negative feedback and leads such people to plateau early and not achieve their full potential. The latter view, a growth mindset, leads to a tendency to embrace challenges, to learn from criticism and such people reach ever higher levels of achievement (Krakovsky, 2007: page 48).
  • The fourth theme is a cornerstone of the Indian spiritual tradition: self-knowledge. Indeed, the highest form of knowledge, it is said, is self-knowledge. I believe this greater awareness and knowledge of oneself is what ultimately helps develop a more grounded belief in oneself, courage, determination, and, above all, humility, all qualities which enable one to wear one’s success with dignity and grace. Based on my life experiences, I can assert that it is this belief in learning from experience, a growth mindset, the power of chance events, and self-reflection that have helped me grow to the present.

Back in the 1960s, the odds of my being in front of you today would have been zero. Yet here I stand before you! With every successive step, the odds kept changing in my favour, and it is these life lessons that made all the difference.

My young friends, I would like to end with some words of advice. Do you believe that your future is pre-ordained, and is already set? Or, do you believe that your future is yet to be written and that it will depend upon the sometimes fortuitous events?

Do you believe that these events can provide turning points to which you will respond with your energy and enthusiasm? Do you believe that you will learn from these events and that you will reflect on your setbacks? Do you believe that you will examine your successes with even greater care?

I hope you believe that the future will be shaped by several turning points with great learning opportunities. In fact, this is the path I have walked to much advantage.

A final word: When, one day, you have made your mark on the world, remember that, in the ultimate analysis, we are all mere temporary custodians of the wealth we generate, whether it be financial, intellectual, or emotional. The best use of all your wealth is to share it with those less fortunate.

“I believe that we have all at some time eaten the fruit from trees that we did not plant. In the fullness of time, when it is our turn to give, it behooves us in turn to plant gardens that we may never eat the fruit of, which will largely benefit generations to come. I believe this is our sacred responsibility, one that I hope you will shoulder in time.”

Thank you for your patience. Go forth and embrace your future with open arms, and pursue enthusiastically your own life journey of discovery"

-Team MPS

Friday, September 11, 2009

Interlink Petroleum- All depends on the outcome of activities lined up for next few months


Interlink Petroleum is an oil company based in Gujarat. This company was allotted two-fields in the mid-90s. These are Modhera Oil Field and Baola Gas Field. Because of paucity of funds with the promoters; the old promoters were never able to exploit these fields commercially. Both these fields are located in the Cambay Basin and both are proven fields."

This company has recently seen a change in the management. The company recently allotted about 1.2 crore shares to a Singapore company called Jit Sun Investments. What will happen to Interlink Petroleum after infusion of funds by Ezra Holdings is that firstly they will be able to commercially exploit the fields which have not been exploited till date maybe we may see commercial production of oil and gas from these two fields(all assumptions)

A preview of what the new management proposes to do in future

The new management, decided to revitalize the field with a program to acquire fresh seismic data and drilling of new well(s). This is to afford systematic re-development and also to have the optimum productivity from the field.

Further, the new management, immediately upon takeover, pursued and obtained the mining lease for Modhera oil field, also located in the same Cambay basin as Baola field, the Production Sharing Contract for which was signed by the Company in the year 2001, and took over the field in February 2009. It was also decided to approach the development of the Modhera field systematically by acquiring seismic data and drilling new well(s) after having better understanding of the petroleum system.

Accordingly, action has already been initiated by the Company to acquire seismic data together for both the fields. The seismic data acquisition is expected to be completed during the third quarter of financial year 2009-10. The results of the seismic will enable the Company to locate and drill the planned new well(s) in the fields subsequently.

The production of gas from the Baola field and oil/gas from Modhera field, based on the outcome of the drilling phase, is expected to be started from the financial year 2010-11 and 2011-12 respectively.

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In the case of Interlink petroleum, there could be windfall gains, if the company is able to strike oil in its two fields. The actual estimates can't be made, till it is known as to what the reserves could be. I don't see a short term trigger for this company, and there would be a trigger only if there's some positive outcome from the seismic data acquisition. However, if there's a positive outcome out of seismic data acquisition, the scrip can rally to very high levels.


Note: The stocks discussed at MPS thru blog postings are neither a part of “Business Insights” issue nor a “Penny Stocks” which we reco/publish for paid subscribers. These are just stock specific views by MPS team; one MUST do the due diligence before doing any investment based on our reco.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

Promotional Call from SLT : Cash Mkt Delivery Based Call - Hold this stock for 1 month to get 50% returns!!!

Buy Intellvisions Software Ltd [BSE Code : 531777] around 23-25; SL below 21; Target 35 within 1 month & 65-70 within 3-4 months.

Go for our classic cash market calls from www.stoplosstrade.com. Pls visit the link below for more details on "Make Money Trading Calls" : Link

- Team MPS

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Adani Power and NHPC struggle on listing day. Adani Power just marginally above issue price while NHPC below the issue price

Here's a mail transcript of the discussion I had with one of our subscribers on various IPO's being launched. He wanted to invest in the IPO of Adani Power, and here's what I recommended.

Frankly speaking, I never recommend people to invest in IPO's. As most of the time, they are priced quite aggressively. Also, those who put in money, do it for the sole purpose of making 10-20% gain on the day of listing, by selling it at a premium. Even if you take into account the recent IPO of Mahindra holidays and resorts, then in that case also we had asked investors to not to put in money, as it was priced quite lavishly. But those who had invested, have got decent gains of about 10-15%, as it is quoting at Rs 350. So, the gains of such kind depend on rather market sentiments on that day. Had the sentiments been down, the stock could have also listed at a discount. It's all speculative.

In the case of Adani power, the IPO will partly finance Adani’s 6,600 Mw power plants at Mundra in Gujarat and Tiroda in Maharashtra. At present, the promoters hold 87 per cent equity in the company. After the IPO, the promoters’ stake will come down to 73.5 per cent. The company has tied up Rs 22,676-crore debt for the power projects and the promoters have put in Rs 3,500 crore.

Again in this case, as with Reliance Power, the projects are still on papers, and there is time for the company to start generating revenue. There is only one plant of 330 MW, which is expected to get commissioned by June 2009, else all others are expected to go love by 2010 and 2011.

Although there are huge opportunities in India in terms of power generation, and its a good move by private sector companies, which are foraying into power generation, as they are solving India's dire power situation. But, from an investment point of view, I really don't find them a good pick, as the whole investor community is already running behind them, thus pricing in everything.

Also, in the case of power projects, there's a long gestation period,and thereby Adani power will take a long time to get into the positive cash flow generating territory.

So, I would not recommend you Adani power from long term investment point of view. But, if you are looking for 10-20% gain on the day of listing, then it's up to you to decide, since such a thing can't be said with surety, as it all depends on the market sentiment on that day. So there could be a move either way.

At the end, I would like to summarize by saying, that in almost all the cases IPOs are lavishly priced and one should avoid investing as in IPO you will apply for some X no of shares and the money will be blocked for Y no of days, finally you don't have control over how much shares you 'll get. In this way you lose money as opportunity cost for the number of days your money is locked in.


Note:
The stocks discussed at MPS thru blog postings are neither a part of “Business Insights” issue nor a “Penny Stocks” which we reco/publish for paid subscribers. These are just stock specific views by MPS team; one MUST do the due diligence before doing any investment based on our reco.

To contact the equity analyst on this story: Ekansh Mittal in Noida (New Delhi) at Ekansh@hbjcapital.com

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Birla Shloka to raise Rs 34.78 cr via follow-on offer
Birla Shloka Edutech, the Yash Birla group company, has filed draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI). It is planning to raise around Rs 34.78 crore via this follow-on public offer.

The company is engaged in sales and services of varied products to education institutions. It is engaged in providing IT infrastructure and imparting IT and IT enabled education in schools of various boards. It setups computer labs, digital classroom solutions and audio visual solutions in schools along with software product XL @ School which is a curriculum based interactive multimedia software for mathematics and science subjects.

Proceeds from the issue will be used for capital expenditure for Turnkey Projects executed by the company under the BOOT model (Rs 15 crore); capital expenditure on upgradation of infrastructure and content development for XL @ School (Rs 9.5 crore); funding the proposed M&A activities (Rs 4.5); for meeting the working capital requirements (Rs 2.13 crore) and issue expenses (Rs 3.03 crore).

For the year ended March 31, 2009, it has reported profit after tax of Rs 31.45 lakh on total income of Rs 104.03 crore.

- Team MPS